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Samia Bugwe Central Opinion Poll – Post-NRM Primaries



The political atmosphere in Samia Bugwe Central (SBC) is heating up following the conclusion of the NRM primaries. A fresh opinion poll indicates that independent candidate Ouma Patrick has taken an early lead in the race for Member of Parliament.

According to the poll, Patrick commands 46% support, positioning him as the frontrunner. His appeal lies in his independent voice, which resonates with voters eager for a shift from traditional party dominance.

The NRM flagbearer Hamala, who emerged victorious in the primaries, follows with 33%. While he enjoys the backing of party structures, analysts note that his support faces resistance from sections of the constituency demanding change.

Former contender Nyangweso, who lost to Hamala in the primaries but has declared his intention to run as an independent, stands at 18%. Though he retains a loyal base, his return risks splitting the independent vote, potentially undermining his momentum.

Other parties are yet to announce their candidates, and the undecided vote currently stands at 3%.

The poll findings suggest that the 2026 general election in Samia Bugwe Central is shaping into a highly competitive three-horse race. However, with Patrick’s early lead and strong grassroots support, his candidacy is increasingly seen as the biggest test for both the NRM establishment and returning independents.


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